Entropy: The Degree of Disorder or Randomness in the System
When a high level of entropy exists, people tend to just shut down. When events occur too frequently, chaos develops, volatility increases to extreme levels and risk aversion ensues. With President Trump, through the desire to implement trade policy through the unconventional means of social media, the level of entropy has hit an extreme high. In reality, the trade war was actually lost decades ago. The key issue is the fact that in China’s 2025 economic strategy high tech industries are the main focus, and this is the battle ground.
The reality is that this is not so much about trade wars but trade theatre. With mid-term elections coming in the fall, the President needs to be seen fulfilling his election promises. A deal on intellectual property rights will be made and it may take some time. In the end President Trump’s bark is bigger then his bite.
The United States can on longer absorb the excess capacity generated by Germany and China. John Maynard Keynes warned that this bridge would eventually be crossed during the negotiations at Bretton Woods in 1944. He rightly predicted that the World Trade Organization was not strong enough to deal with the inherent problems created by a closed economy. Countries that manufacture trade surpluses are reticent to back up or create conditions to consume more internally. This is known, and will be dealt with through negotiations.
While economic conditions point to a period of strong company earnings, the heightened political risk, caused by concern regarding an impending trade war, has caused extreme volatility in the financial markets. Prudence suggests investors reduce exposure, and we have with the Pendragon Fund. While earnings will be strong, we expect the market to be volatile in the short-term and a deal will be made before the mid-term election season starts. When this happens, fundamentals will again take center stage. Until then, a high level of entropy will exist in the markets.
This does not mean the evolutionary process and the global economy has stopped. If the politicians and regulators step aside, the financial markets and the global economy will continue to grow and the new data driven economy will continue to evolve at a rapid pace.
Investors should look at this period as the pause that refreshes.
Chief Capital Market Strategist & Senior Portfolio Manager
Accredited Investors Only
The Fund is available on a private placement basis only to residents of Canada who are qualified “Accredited Investors” as defined under National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions and who are resident in Canada. This material is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offering memorandum or an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which an offer or solicitation is not authorized. Please read the Fund’s Offering Memorandum before investing. Prospective investors should rely solely on the Offering Memorandum which outlines the risk factors in making a decision to invest. The indicated rates of return are historical annual compounded total returns net of fees and expenses paid by the Fund, including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions, but do not take into account sales charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Investments in the Fund are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Investment losses do and may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment in the Fund. The information herein does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any prospective investor. No assurance can be given that the Fund’s investment objective will be achieved or that investors will meet their investment goals. Prospective investors should consult their appropriate advisors prior to investing. Information presented herein is obtained from sources we believe reliable, but we assume no responsibility for information provided to us from third parties. Caldwell Securities Ltd. and Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Caldwell Financial Ltd. Officers, directors and employees of Caldwell Financial Ltd. and its subsidiaries may have positions in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales from time to time. This information may not be reproduced for any purpose or provided to others in whole or in part without the prior written permission of Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. All information and opinions indicated herein are subject to change without notice. Inception date: September 15, 2016.